livi v Brechin

On paper this is an easy game but we all know how that can go, we're not playing on paper. Still, if we remain focussed and don't give away any silly goals we should win this and get the 3 points to secure 3rd place, and hopefully results will also go our way down in Dumfries with Queens taking points from Utd.
It is going to be a big day for us, and if everything goes well we may even secure 2nd place with 2 games to spare.

I'll hold off on my prediction just now, I need time to get my enthusiasm up to an unbridled level of optimism so I can go for something outrageous.

I don't think it's an exaggeration at all to say that if we don't get a result here, our chances of going up will be very, very slim. I'll refrain from making a prediction until Brechin play United tomorrow, I have the feeling City will claim their first win of the season and maybe do us a favour.

Brechin aren't winning a game this season, they've chucked it. They haven't scored in a month (not at all since they were relegated) and have been getting pumped every week whereas they had a short spell before relegation where they were at least keeping the scoreline tight. A lot of the times a team relaxing a bit will end with better results, but since relegation they've lost 3-0, 4-0, 1-0 (a nervous St Mirren side), and 4-0.

We should be looking to hammer them and I think we will. 3-0, FG 19 mins.

3 words... West Bromwich Albion

More words - English football is much more likely to throw up these coupon busting results than Scottish football, so we really shouldn't have any fears that Brechin are going to do anything against us. However, it could also be about us, perhaps getting a wee bit nervous as the enormity of what we are on the brink of sinks in. We have gotten this far by embracing the old cliche of 1 game at a time & we have to hope that this is still the mantra.

I want us to run up a big score in this one. I don't think we will. But I'm going to wait until after the midweek games take place before making my prediction

Ooo we're all holding back with our predictions, and only LL has been brave enough to nail his colours to the mast.

Our players should be able to handle the pressure of it all though, they won the league last season, and had quite a battle to get above Brechin and Alloa at the start of it too, then pushed on and won it comfortably. I think there was more pressure to get promoted last season too, we really couldn't afford another season in league One, it would've been financially crippling. The Championship is a harder league but the players have shown real mental strength getting a play off place, I also think Hoppy has been amazing keeping them focussed on the job in hand, I can't see it all falling apart now.

Hells bells, i almost got totally carried away there and nearly put down a prediction.

Like Bertie I'm tempted to wait until after tonight's game before making any predictions.

Absolutely on paper this should be our easiest game; we have pretty much a full squad to choose from with no real injury worries; Brechin are a mess with no direction or self belief. It should be a walk in the park. So why am I feeling edgy about this one?

I'm hoping Miller is ok. He looked to be in a bit of pain near the end of the first half on Saturday. He did come out for the second but went off early.

Aye Miller is good in the air but he takes a lot of hits with big CB's coming elbows first into the back of him. Hopefully he makes it and if we get a couple of goals so we could rest him up 2nd half.

Frizzell might be decent up front, he wasn't very good on the left wing and I read Afro saying something similar in his first sub appearance against the Pars, I think he's better suited playing through the centre.

Liviforever wrote:Aye Miller is good in the air but he takes a lot of hits with big CB's coming elbows first into the back of him. Hopefully he makes it and if we get a couple of goals so we could rest him up 2nd half.

Frizzell might be decent up front, he wasn't very good on the left wing and I read Afro saying something similar in his first sub appearance against the Pars, I think he's better suited playing through the centre.

Frizzell has suffered 4 bouts of tonsillitis this year, I follow Scotland 21's, and lots of youth games. He was forced to pull out after being selected and after a fantastic Toulon Tournament.
There is no doubt it is having an adverse affect on him. Every time he gets fit it seems to re-occur.
Not medical but 4 times in a year must do something for fitness and performance.
On Saturday I felt he was in good positions but some of his teammates failed to see the pass. He is still a young lad with massive potential.
just an opinion.

Bonnie Scott wrote:

Liviforever wrote:Aye Miller is good in the air but he takes a lot of hits with big CB's coming elbows first into the back of him. Hopefully he makes it and if we get a couple of goals so we could rest him up 2nd half.

Frizzell might be decent up front, he wasn't very good on the left wing and I read Afro saying something similar in his first sub appearance against the Pars, I think he's better suited playing through the centre.

Frizzell has suffered 4 bouts of tonsillitis this year, I follow Scotland 21's, and lots of youth games. He was forced to pull out after being selected and after a fantastic Toulon Tournament.
There is no doubt it is having an adverse affect on him. Every time he gets fit it seems to re-occur.
Not medical but 4 times in a year must do something for fitness and performance.
On Saturday I felt he was in good positions but some of his teammates failed to see the pass. He is still a young lad with massive potential.
just an opinion.

Yeah he was fantastic coming on against Morton and changed the game back in our favour just when it had looked like Morton were going to beat us. He went at players and made them back off, but on Sat there he seemed reluctant to do that and was looking for someone to pass to instead of driving forward himself. I think that's also why he was subbed for Cadden at HT. Maybe I built him up too much after seeing him against Morton but it was a bit disappointing from him on Sat and I thought maybe he's better suited to CM or up front.

Def has ability though and if he plays like he did against Morton he'll be a great player to have going into the play offs..

That's 14 league defeats in a row after tonight and 3 goals scored in those games.

6-0 Livi, fg 5 mins, mon the Lions lets have some fun.

I'm not as optimistic as you (understatement of the year?) 2 of United's 5 were in the last 10 minutes & there are exLivi players who may want to up their game against us but even I cannot see anything other than

Livi 3 Brechin 0

FG 25 mins

Yeah from what I read on forums Brechin had a decent first half and Mackin hit the post in the 2nd half before a Utd counter attack for their 1st goal, but they totally collapsed once that goal went in and but for some fantastic saves could've conceded a lot more, so lets just get a first half goal and demolish them for a comfortable afternoon.
Mackin wont be playing either with us being his parent club, don't know if that'll make any difference right enough because they aren't scoring goals anyway, but you know how these things work, it would've been a racing certainty he'd have scored against us.

Liviforever wrote:Yeah from what I read on forums Brechin had a decent first half and Mackin hit the post in the 2nd half before a Utd counter attack for their 1st goal, but they totally collapsed once that goal went in and but for some fantastic saves could've conceded a lot more, so lets just get a first half goal and demolish them for a comfortable afternoon.
Mackin wont be playing either with us being his parent club, don't know if that'll make any difference right enough because they aren't scoring goals anyway, but you know how these things work, it would've been a racing certainty he'd have scored against us.

A Sean Crighton volley on the other hand...

£71k difference in prize money between 2nd and 3rd.

Effectively these are our biggest three games, prize money wise, for years.

Brechin held on for almost an hour last night but Mackin was their main (some might say their only) goal threat and he's not allowed to play.

Its difficult to actually understand the Brechin strategy; if I was in their place I'd be tempted to throw almost everything at the opposition in order to score and perhaps sneak a win. Instead they seem to be throwing almost everyone behind the ball to try and stop the other team from playing. I mean they're down already; it doesnt matter if they take another thrashing; but to go down with such a whimper just isn't Scottish IMO.

Brechin have two games left to sneak that illusive win; us away and, the one I think they're throw everything at, QoS at home.

With this in mind I think they'll want a fully fit side to face them hence I'm feeling a bit more optimistic about this one now.

I'm predicting a 4-0 win with FG after 17 minutes.

I even predict that I think it will be scored (or assisted by) by Jackson Longridge.

So they park the bus? Traditionally the tactic we struggle with. Maybe I should change my prediction...

Maybe they need a new bus driver then because it wasn't parked very good in the 2nd half against Utd.

My head hurts with all the different configurations.

This weekend:

QoS vs Dundee United - Ideally a home win but then again Dundee United HAVE to win this as a draw won't do them much good based on our vastly better goal difference.

ICT vs Dunfermline - Given that Dunfermline will probably beat Dumbarton for their last game at their place this is a game that ICT MUST win. Failure to do so really meant they won't qualify for the playoff's (assuming of course that we beat Brechin). Obviously I'd prefer Dunfermline to win this so that we play a deflated ICT on Tuesday.

Worst case scenario is that United and ICT both win their games; which would really mean we have to win against ICT to avoid it coming down to the last game of the season against United. A draw would not be sufficient.



The really scary thing is that, if it did come down to the last game of the season, the victors would have an extra week to recover from knocks or injuries whereas the losers are straight into the fray with either ICT or Dunfermline. So do you play it easy to ensure that you retain a full squad or do you go all out and gamble.

Hoppy's taking one game at a time mantra has worked well this season, the players just need to concentrate on the Brechin game, get the win, and see how the dust has settled from the other results.

Reminds me of the time we won the league away at Ochilview and were all hanging around waiting to hear how results had went elsewhere, all eyes will be on the QoS v Utd result after we beat Brechin.

I agree the team must take each game as it comes; however its not so easy for us.

Ultimately we must win this one and hopefully win big; its extremely unlikely that goal difference will play a part in this but its good for the sake of momentum. If United drew with QoS and we won against Brechin and lost against ICT then United would need to beat us by nine clear goals plus whatever the difference in scores between the games at ICT and Brechin. Actually that would be one hell of a game.

It's a lot easier for us than anyone else though, we're not dependent on anyone having to win games for us, we can do it ourselves in the next two home games. And the first game is against the worst team in the league.

Liviforever wrote:Maybe they need a new bus driver then because it wasn't parked very good in the 2nd half against Utd.

Or maybe United don't struggle to break down a parked bus.

Based on our respective seasons so far we ought to win extremely comfortably, earlier in the season they were losing but not getting gubbed, that has changed so hopefully we can just go about our business & blast them out of sight... but I just have a feeling it's not going to pan out that way... but I'll stick to my prediction.

Incidentally, the ONLY way ICT can make the play offs is by winning ALL their remaining games. Doing so would also eliminate Dunfermline.

Durnford wrote:I agree the team must take each game as it comes; however its not so easy for us.

Ultimately we must win this one and hopefully win big; its extremely unlikely that goal difference will play a part in this but its good for the sake of momentum. If United drew with QoS and we won against Brechin and lost against ICT then United would need to beat us by nine clear goals plus whatever the difference in scores between the games at ICT and Brechin. Actually that would be one hell of a game.

Our GD advantage over United is currently 8 goals and we currently have scored 3 more than them. Let's assume they draw 1-1 & we win 1-0 against Brechin & lose 1-0 to ICT making it a showdown for 2nd place... These scores would retain the current 8 goal advantage.

Now, D, I know you can be quite eloquent but your arithmetic is somewhat lacking... United would only need to beat us 4-0 to finish 2nd because every goal they score increases their GD & reduces ours. So 4-0 produces an 8 goal swing rendering the GD for both sides as 15, but crucially they would have scored 1 more than us & would have pipped us to 2nd.

So... A big win over Brechin is our ideal result this week, that eliminates everyone but United from the race for 2nd, & we see how the dust settles elsewhere. If United lose it's ours, if they draw, then it's on to the next game so the more we beat Brechin by the less likely they can overturn it.

Bertie Bassett wrote:

Durnford wrote:I agree the team must take each game as it comes; however its not so easy for us.

Ultimately we must win this one and hopefully win big; its extremely unlikely that goal difference will play a part in this but its good for the sake of momentum. If United drew with QoS and we won against Brechin and lost against ICT then United would need to beat us by nine clear goals plus whatever the difference in scores between the games at ICT and Brechin. Actually that would be one hell of a game.

Our GD advantage over United is currently 8 goals and we currently have scored 3 more than them. Let's assume they draw 1-1 & we win 1-0 against Brechin & lose 1-0 to ICT making it a showdown for 2nd place... These scores would retain the current 8 goal advantage.

Now, D, I know you can be quite eloquent but your arithmetic is somewhat lacking... United would only need to beat us 4-0 to finish 2nd because every goal they score increases their GD & reduces ours. So 4-0 produces an 8 goal swing rendering the GD for both sides as 15, but crucially they would have scored 1 more than us & would have pipped us to 2nd.

So... A big win over Brechin is our ideal result this week, that eliminates everyone but United from the race for 2nd, & we see how the dust settles elsewhere. If United lose it's ours, if they draw, then it's on to the next game so the more we beat Brechin by the less likely they can overturn it.

Yes Bertie; you're right about the score at United; I'd have been better saying "turn around an eight goal deficit.".

However if we, for example put a few goal past Brechin it become even more challenging for them.

Although the whole thing becomes academic if we beat ICT which frankly we have every chance of doing. Its midweek; they'll have very little travelling support compared to a weekend game. Yes; they've stringed a few results together but, for the most part these were against the bottom three sides (including Dumbarton X 3) plus a draw against St Mirren at their place and a win against a unpredictable QoS (actually probably their best result recently). That's not to say its going to be easy but they've been playing twice a week for what seems like a couple of months now. Their cup win gave them a wee boost as ours did us but I believe we will be too strong for them over 90 minutes.

I do however hope they get beaten by Dunfermline before our game to knock the stuffing out of them and to not be so over-reliant on my unbridled optimism.